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Jack Stoll Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3700/-6750).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +4000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +3700.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.The Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.9%) to TEs this year (85.9%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.Jack Stoll comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching just 64.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.
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