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Jack Stoll

Jack Stoll Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

Jack Stoll Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-7000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -7000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 62.9% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league in these situations has been the New Orleans Saints.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 139.6 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week.

The highest number of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a whopping 64.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

This year, the stout Giants defense has allowed a puny 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

This year, the weak New York Giants run defense has given up a monstrous 1.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.

The Giants safeties project as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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