Jack Stoll Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jack Stoll

NFL · Player Props

Jack Stoll

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jack Stoll Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Jack Stoll to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game in this game (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.
With a measly 1.1 adjusted receptions per game (18th percentile) since the start of last season, Jack Stoll ranks among the bottom pass-catching TEs in football.
When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Kansas City's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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