Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 7, 2025 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-360).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +290.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
With a stellar rate of 0.25 per game through the air (91st percentile), Isiah Pacheco stands as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among running backs this year.
With an atrocious ratio of only 0.00 rushing touchdowns per game (1st percentile), Isiah Pacheco ranks among the weakest rushing TD-scorers in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
While Isiah Pacheco has earned 12.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Kansas City's passing offense near the end zone this week at 5.9%.
Isiah Pacheco has accumulated a meager -6.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.1% to 67.3%.

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