Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -300.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.
At the moment, the 3rd-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (38.5 per game) since the start of last season.
While Isiah Pacheco has garnered 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Kansas City's passing attack near the goal line in this game at 5.4%.

Favors Under

Out of all RBs, Isiah Pacheco ranks in the 75th percentile for red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, making up 37.7% of the usage in his offense's run game near the goal line.
Isiah Pacheco has accrued a mere -4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 5th percentile among RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 73.1% to 64.6%.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on Isiah Pacheco's box scores since the start of last season.
When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.