Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 11:37 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.5% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
In regards to air yards, Isiah Pacheco grades out in just the 5th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -4.0 per game.
Isiah Pacheco's 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 73.2% mark.
Isiah Pacheco grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.