Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 13, 2024

Updated Nov 30, 2024 3:06 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
Isiah Pacheco has picked up 69.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least run-centric team in the league (33.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.6 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Isiah Pacheco to be a much smaller part of his team's run game in this week's contest (34.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (64.5% in games he has played).
With a lousy record of 2.26 yards after contact (21st percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco has been as one of the weakest running backs in the NFL.

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