Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Isiah Pacheco has garnered 46.6% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have incorporated some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 32.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.