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Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Isiah Pacheco Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • Isiah Pacheco's 45.9% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a remarkable boost in his pass game workload over last season's 33.5% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.1% to 67.3%.
  • The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.9%) to running backs this year (72.9%).
  • The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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