Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 7, 2025 12:17 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-127/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Isiah Pacheco's 45.9% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a remarkable boost in his pass game workload over last season's 33.5% mark.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
Isiah Pacheco has accumulated a meager -6.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Isiah Pacheco's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.1% to 67.3%.
Isiah Pacheco's 3.5 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 5.0 mark.

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