Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2025

Updated Oct 7, 2025 2:42 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
After accounting for 50.3% of his team's carries last season, Isiah Pacheco has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising only 35.2%.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's safety corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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