Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 20, 2024

Updated Jan 18, 2025 9:11 PM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
After comprising 64.1% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Isiah Pacheco has played a smaller part in the run game this season, currently accounting for just 50.3%.
The Houston Texans defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to run defense.

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