Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2023

Updated Dec 26, 2023 3:11 AM EST

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Isiah Pacheco to earn 16.3 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.
Isiah Pacheco has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (64.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (40.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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