Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-122/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to accumulate 13.4 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Isiah Pacheco has been given 45.6% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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