Isiah Pacheco Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Isiah Pacheco

NFL · Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Isiah Pacheco Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+115/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 12.7 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (54.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (29.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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