Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Isaiah McKenzie

NFL · Player Props

Isaiah McKenzie

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Isaiah McKenzie Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+371/-752).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -747 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -752.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Isaiah McKenzie has put up significantly more air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Isaiah McKenzie's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 9.7.
Isaiah McKenzie ranks in the 88th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.43 per game.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Isaiah McKenzie's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 71.3%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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