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Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-315).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -330 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -315.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.Isaiah Likely has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.Isaiah Likely's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 77.4% to 100.0%.With an impressive ratio of 0.33 per game through the air (88th percentile), Isaiah Likely rates among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among tight ends since the start of last season.Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
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