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Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Isaiah Likely Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+375/-600).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -345 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -600.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Isaiah Likely has accrued a colossal 31.0 air yards per game last year: 86th percentile among TEs.

Isaiah Likely ranks in the 80th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a whopping 29.7 mark last year.

Isaiah Likely ranks in the 94th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging a fantastic 0.40 per game.

Since the start of last season, the feeble Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 80.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 53.8% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.5% red zone run rate.

At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Baltimore Ravens.

The projections expect Isaiah Likely to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game near the end zone in this game (12.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (21.3% in games he has played).

Since the start of last season, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a measly 0.25 passing TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

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