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Isaiah Hodgins

Isaiah Hodgins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Isaiah Hodgins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+590/-860).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -780 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -860.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 59.5 plays per game.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
  • Isaiah Hodgins has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
  • Isaiah Hodgins's 23.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 4.3.
  • With an impressive 74.0% Adjusted Catch% (76th percentile) this year, Isaiah Hodgins stands as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Giants being a 3-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 8th-most run-focused team in football in the red zone (47.8% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New York Giants.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.4 per game) this year.

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