Irv Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+172/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
Irv Smith Jr. has been used less as a potential target this season (68.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (55.6%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
Irv Smith Jr.'s 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant decline in his receiving proficiency over last year's 73.2% figure.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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