Irv Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Irv Smith

NFL · Player Props

Irv Smith

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Irv Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to garner 5.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
Irv Smith Jr. has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 13.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Irv Smith Jr.'s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.2% to 61.5%.
Irv Smith Jr.'s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 2.86 yards-per-target compared to a 5.82 mark last year.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, yielding 7.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.

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