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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+480/-1500).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +500 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +480.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

The model projects the Raiders as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Las Vegas offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Raiders are predicted by the model to run just 62.7 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.

With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Ian Thomas has been as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.

This year, the strong Colts defense has yielded a measly 0.25 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

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