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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1500/-6250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -5000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -6250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Raiders rank as the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.7 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Bears pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.6%) to tight ends this year (87.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, Ian Thomas places as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.

In regards to air yards, Ian Thomas ranks in just the 25th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, with just 3.0 per game.

The Bears defense has yielded the 5th-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.25 per game since the start of last season.

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