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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3700/-24000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +3700 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +3700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.2% pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Ian Thomas has been one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a terrific 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) against the Browns defense this year.
  • The Cleveland Browns defensive ends grade out as the best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Raiders are favored in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see only 125.5 total plays run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 26.9 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • Ian Thomas has been been lightly used his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

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