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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Ian Thomas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+6000/-25000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -25000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being a big -9-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 61.1% of their plays: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Raiders have been the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.8% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders this year (just 52.5 per game on average).
  • Ian Thomas has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Ian Thomas has accrued a measly 1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 20th percentile among TEs.
  • Ian Thomas slots into just the 24th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a poor 3.6 mark this year.
  • Ian Thomas grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.

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