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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Ian Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -8-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
  • While Ian Thomas has accounted for 3.1% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing attack in this week's contest at 9.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Raiders offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.37 seconds per play.
  • The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the tough Denver Broncos defense has given up a puny 68.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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