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Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-150).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -8-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs this week, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.While Ian Thomas has accounted for 3.1% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing attack in this week's contest at 9.0%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Raiders offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.37 seconds per play.In regards to air yards, Ian Thomas ranks in the lowly 24th percentile among TEs this year, averaging just 3.0 per game.The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Ian Thomas stands among the leading pass-game TEs in the NFL in the open field.This year, the tough Denver Broncos defense has given up a puny 68.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
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