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Ian Thomas

Ian Thomas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Ian Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a huge -9.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The projections expect the Raiders as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • While Ian Thomas has earned 3.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Las Vegas's passing attack in this game at 8.5%.
  • Ian Thomas comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, catching a terrific 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Raiders are expected by the model to call just 61.4 plays on offense in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.4 per game) this year.
  • Ian Thomas has posted a paltry 3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • The Raiders offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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