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Hunter Renfrow

Hunter Renfrow Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

Hunter Renfrow Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-465).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -390 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -465.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.

With an impressive rate of 0.50 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Hunter Renfrow ranks among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football among wide receivers this year.

The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68%) versus WRs since the start of last season (68.0%).

Since the start of last season, the anemic New England Patriots defense has given up a massive 1.00 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts: the 10th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Panthers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.0 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.

While Hunter Renfrow has received 27.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Carolina's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 18.9%.

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