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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +196.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
  • Hunter Henry has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.9% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Hunter Henry has compiled a whopping 44.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
  • Hunter Henry's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 93rd percentile for TEs.
  • The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
  • This year, the daunting Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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