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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-260).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.
  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • After accumulating 44.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has posted big gains this season, now pacing 53.0 per game.
  • Hunter Henry ranks in the 98th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 45.8 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • The model projects Hunter Henry to be much less involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (25.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
  • Hunter Henry's 71.0% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 75.1% mark.

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