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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • Hunter Henry has notched a monstrous 48.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Hunter Henry's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry grades out in the 100th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.
  • The Carolina Panthers defense has been gouged for the most receiving TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.
  • While Hunter Henry has earned 38.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of New England's offense near the goal line in this contest at 27.0%.

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