My Account Log Out
 
 
Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-370).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -370.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (60.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.
  • Hunter Henry has accumulated a whopping 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
  • Hunter Henry ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 43.8 mark since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • While Hunter Henry has been responsible for 26.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in New England's passing attack near the goal line in this game at 21.2%.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Hunter Henry's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 75.1% to 51.4%.
  • The Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™