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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-196).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.
  • Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 30.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
  • When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a striking 40.0 per game.
  • The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.37 per game through the air (89th percentile), Hunter Henry ranks as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among tight ends this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see just 125.1 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
  • Hunter Henry's 37.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 44.2.

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