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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+148/-168).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • With an impressive 29.7% Red Zone Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry ranks among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a striking 43.0 per game.
  • The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13 points.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Hunter Henry's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 75.1% mark.

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