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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • Hunter Henry has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.3% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
  • In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a colossal 43.0 per game.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.36 per game through the air (87th percentile), Hunter Henry places among the best receiving TD-scorers in football among tight ends this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Hunter Henry's 38.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 75.1% figure.
  • This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a paltry 0.15 passing TDs per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

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