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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -225.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.5 per game) this year.
  • With a sizeable 25.5% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.
  • Hunter Henry has notched a colossal 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • Hunter Henry grades out in the 90th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.38 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
  • The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Hunter Henry's 38.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a meaningful regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 75.1% mark.

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