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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +184 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • With an elite 22.2% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry ranks as one of the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.
  • In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing an impressive 38.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Hunter Henry's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 75.1% rate.
  • This year, the shaky Bengals run defense has been torched for a colossal 1.20 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.

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