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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+128/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +128.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
  • Hunter Henry has notched a colossal 38.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Hunter Henry ranks in the 84th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an exceptional 0.36 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.
  • Hunter Henry's 35.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.

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