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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +113 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to total 6.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Hunter Henry's 50.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry ranks as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 3.4 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
  • Since the start of last season, the shaky Panthers pass defense has allowed a whopping 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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