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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-136/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.
  • The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to total 5.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
  • Hunter Henry ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 43.8 mark since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Hunter Henry's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 75.1% to 51.4%.

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