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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-116/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • In this week's contest, Hunter Henry is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
  • The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
  • The New York Jets linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13 points.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Hunter Henry's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's receiving performance has worsened this year, compiling just 3.1 adjusted catches vs 4.2 last year.

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