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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • In this game, Hunter Henry is expected by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Hunter Henry checks in as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
  • The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 9th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Hunter Henry's 38.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 75.1% figure.
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.6%) vs. tight ends this year (67.6%).

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