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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-117/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -117.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • The projections expect Hunter Henry to notch 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
  • As it relates to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing an astounding 41.0 per game.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Hunter Henry's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 75.1% to 71.6%.

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