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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-108/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -142 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The model projects Hunter Henry to earn 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, accruing an impressive 38.0 per game.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Hunter Henry's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 44.2.
  • Hunter Henry's 37.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a material reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 44.0 mark.
  • Hunter Henry's 70.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 75.1% rate.

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