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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.

At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.

The projections expect Hunter Henry to earn 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

After averaging 28.0 air yards per game last season, Hunter Henry has made big progress this season, currently boasting 40.0 per game.

Hunter Henry's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 82nd percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.

The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 72.5% to 67.3%.

Hunter Henry's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last year.

More Hunter Henry Player Props

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