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Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Hayden Hurst has run a route on 59.2% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

The leading projections forecast Hayden Hurst to garner 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Hayden Hurst checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a mere 57.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

The Steelers pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.7%) versus TEs since the start of last season (70.7%).

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of safeties has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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