Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to notch 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to be much more involved in his offense's air attack this week (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.1% in games he has played).
Hayden Hurst has been among the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing an impressive 80.4% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.7%) versus TEs since the start of last season (75.7%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.