Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+107/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to garner 5.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.