Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +217 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +206.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.6% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
Hayden Hurst's 28.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 16.6.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals have used play action on a mere 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.